Showing posts with label JP Morgan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label JP Morgan. Show all posts

Friday, April 10, 2009

The House of Dimon


A couple days ago I wrote about JP Morgan and their inflated stock price.  Some of the reasons offered to justify that conclusion were the off balance sheet derivatives, commercial real estate and credit card exposure.  In reaching this conclusion, I noted that Jamie Dimon is hands down the best leader in his industry.  Therefore, in this day and age, it is productive and beneficial to profile a man that history will remember fondly, whenever that time comes.  

After reading House of Dimon, I am obliged to consider the possibility that JP Morgan is not overbought.  At some point there has to be a management premium built into a stock, and Jamie Dimon is the kind of CEO that induces such a premium.  

The new book by Patricia Crisafulli  offers rare insights regarding Mr. Dimon's handling of JP Morgan before and during the Financial Crisis.  

The book offers some keen insight into the day to day handling of employees by Mr. Dimon and it becomes clear early on why Mr. Dimon has been so successful.  The book explores the various traits that have made Mr. Dimon successful.  One tactic that caught my eye was his habit of keeping a form of a "to do list" in his pocket.  Everytime someone owed him an answer, a report, or any response, he would write that down on a piece of paper and keep it in his pocket.  Once he received the answer he wanted, he would cross off the item on the piece of paper.  This was a way for him to keep track of everything his management team was doing, and make sure jobs were getting accomplished.

If there was a problem in the Company, he made sure that it was his problem.  Unless, someone decided not to share the particular problem, in it was solely the individual's responsibility.  Something he strongly frowned upon.   

What makes Mr. Dimon shine is his ability to hold others accountable.  He is ferociously competitive and tries to instill his competitive nature in his employees.  

He keeps daily tabs on his management team and works just as hard as any employee at the company.  In a day and age where expensive furniture, lavish corporate jets and needless frills are the norm, Mr. Dimon is the unusual.  

This is a great profile.  I would recommend this to anyone involved in management, investing or interested in starting a business.  

My only criticism of the book is in the pudding.  Because the book does a great job at allowing you inside the mind of a cutting edge thinker, it does not allow for any second guessing of Mr. Dimon.  It would be interesting to see what moves Mr. Dimon thought were off base, and how he might have changed the companies direction with a little more clarity.  A weak criticism of a fine biography.  

To purchase a copy, I added an Amazon link that should be to the upper right of this post.  Enjoy.  

 





Saturday, April 4, 2009

Bank Stocks on Monday


After 4 straight weeks of strong gains, it will be telling this week whether bank stocks pullback or whether they continue their rise.  

The Dow Jones Financial Index is up about 36% over the past 30 days.  If you used a leveraged ETF, as I wrote about yesterday, you would be up anywhere from 72% to 108%.  Not bad for a month's returns.  However, this was clearly due to their oversold nature.  It may be time to take profits.  

This week Citigroup (C), JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of American, Wells Fargo (WFC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stantley will all be closely watched.  Along with some of the regional names, PNC, Sun Trust (STI), and Fifth Third (FITB).  

It is probably time for a pullback, but markets rally in unpredictable ways.  It is likely that they will shoot past their fair value and then fall hard in the coming days, assuming they are close to their fair value.  

The market might be getting a little ahead of itself.  All of the large banks have yet to detail their credit losses and add to reserves for the quarter.  We have seen a further decline in the prices of homes, and there has been a trend lately in commercial real estate that is not favorable.  

With the new FASB rules in effect, it will also be telling about the marks that the particular companies make on their loan portfolios.  It would be prudent for the companies to continue increasing reserves and to be conservative in their "new" valuations based off the recent FASB decision.  However, prudent is clearly not what average Wall Street CEO's main concern. American Express' recent decision to maintain their dividend is a perfect example of imprudence.  

During the conference calls it might be important to see if the banks talk anymore about FAS 140, and the potential effects it will have on their balance sheets.  FAS 140 due to come into effect in 2010, if not suspended, will have dramatic effect on a number of bank stocks and financial service companies. 

This is particularly true in regards to Citigroup.  If FAS 140 is put into effect Citi will be required to bring on their balance sheet a total of around 98.2 Billion, plus additional loss reserves.  This could possibly result in another round of government fund raising and further dilution in the value of Citi's stock.

Given the recent actions by the Financial Accounting Standard Board, and their recent modifications under severe duress.  It is not unlikely to think, they may be forced to either push back the FAS 140 rules to a later date, or to completely stop the FAS 140 rules from taking effect.  

Because we are a little less than 2 weeks away from earnings season for the bank stocks.  I would put my money on a strong pullback in these names over the next week or more.  After Goldman reports, likely better than expected earnings, bank stocks may continue their rise or engage in a sharp pullback due to concerns about credit card losses and commerical loans, depending on the details of each conference call.  Stay tuned.  

  • Bank of America reports April 20th
  • Citigroup reports April 17
  • Fifth Third reports TBA
  • Goldman reports April 14th
  • JP Morgan reports April 16th
  • Morgan Stanley, TBA 
  • PNC reports TBA
  • Sun Trust reports April 23
  • U.S. Bancorp reports April 21
  • Wells Fargo on April 22nd